Prediction Markets Don’t Have Juice: Here’s Why
If you’ve made sports bets with any frequency, then you’re familiar with juice. Ostensibly, that’s the cut a sportsbook takes on each accepted bet. Prediction markets don’
News
The latest on Kalshi, Polymarket and the business of prediction markets, plus guides to trading them smarter.
How to Arbitrage: Finding Opportunities Across Prediction Markets and Sportsbooks
The word ‘arbitrage’ describes a short-term market price discrepancy, which usually occurs across different platforms. This creates a limited window in which you can buy a contract in one
What is Implied Probability?
In prediction markets, implied probability refers to the likelihood of a particular outcome occurring. This value can be inferred from the outcome’s “Yes” or “No” contract price, enabling you
Limit Orders vs Market Orders in Prediction Markets
Every trade on a prediction market platform like Kalshi or Polymarket starts with a decision. You can accept the price offered at that moment, or you can name your own
How to Spot a Mispriced Market (Before Everyone Else)
You know how to read the orderbook. You know how to size a trade. Now the hard part: finding a trade worth making. Most of the liquid prediction markets are
How to Read the Orderbook: A Beginner’s Guide to Prediction Markets
There are a few things you need to know in order to read prediction markets like a pro. There is no complicated jargon or finance degree required to get through
How to Size a Prediction Market Trade
You know how to read the orderbook. You know what the odds mean. You’ve maybe even placed a trade or two. But here’s the question that
Top 5 Mistakes Prediction Market Traders Make (And How To Avoid Them)
Tyler Jacobsma is the founder of Flowframe.xyz, which provides in-depth content and tools for prediction market traders. You’ve read the orderbook guide. You know how to
Kalshi Launches Midterms Hub As Prediction Markets Keep Growing
Some people start the morning with a weather app. Others reach straight for the group chat. A growing number of Americans now start the day a third way: pulling up
Prediction Markets Face Congress on Sports Event Contracts
Spain had barely finished celebrating its World Cup title at MetLife Stadium when a very different contest kicked off in a House hearing room in Washington D.C. No trophy,
Wildfire Prediction Markets and the Hazards of Disaster Betting
When destructive blazes swept across Southern California, burning through thousands of structures and claiming lives, a parallel financial debate opened up on prediction markets like Polymarket. Traders were predicting how
Inside Kalshi’s Record World Cup Run: 3 Million New Users, $12 Billion Traded
Spain‘s players were still celebrating on the pitch at MetLife Stadium on Sunday night when Kalshi‘s marketing team had already moved on to counting a different